Quiniela jornada 10: Spain v Croatia is the Pleno al 15

After the 2-3 at Wembley left a 2-M in box 15, jornada 10 closes with Spain v Croatia in Seville on Tuesday. Head-to-head, form and what to pick.

Spain close out La Quiniela again this week. The Pleno al 15 — the bonus 15th box — for quiniela jornada 10 is Spain v Croatia on Tuesday 29 September at the Sánchez-Pizjuán, the second round of Nations League fixtures. It comes three days after a comeback that anyone who filled in last week's box 15 won't forget in a hurry: England 2-3 Spain at Wembley, with Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal coming off the bench to turn it round. If you're working through the jornada 10 coupon, here's what Wembley taught us and what's worth knowing before you mark Spain v Croatia.

England 2-3 Spain: how jornada 9's Pleno al 15 was settled

Saturday's game started at a sprint. Marc Guehi was caught dwelling on the ball and Lamine Yamal punished him inside two minutes — one of the quickest goals England have conceded at Wembley in decades. Thomas Tuchel's side hit back before the break, though. Anthony Gordon levelled on 36 minutes at the end of a Jude Bellingham-led counter, and Harry Kane headed in Nico O'Reilly's cross four minutes later to make it 2-1.

Early in the second half Kane had the chance to put the game to bed from the spot after Rodri fouled Bellingham, but his standing foot slipped and the ball crashed off the bar. Luis de la Fuente went to his bench and it paid off handsomely: Baena equalised on the hour, then threaded the pass for Oyarzabal to dink over James Trafford for the 74th-minute winner in front of around 84,000 fans.

• Goals: Lamine Yamal (2'), Anthony Gordon (36'), Harry Kane (40'), Álex Baena (60'), Mikel Oyarzabal (74').
• Missed penalty: Kane, off the crossbar, with England 2-1 up.
• The run: Spain are now 39 games unbeaten.
• Tuchel blamed a terrible start and individual errors: in his view, only Spain's third goal came from genuine build-up play.

In our Wembley Pleno al 15 preview we called the M a value pick rather than a banker, and warned against putting a 0 in Spain's box. The second half of that advice was vindicated inside two minutes; only the brave cashed in on the first.

Spain v Croatia: the Pleno al 15 for quiniela jornada 10

Spain v Croatia kicks off at 20:45 Spanish time (19:45 UK) on Tuesday 29 September at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán in Seville, live and free-to-air on La 1 and RTVE Play in Spain. Both sides have a perfect start in League A Group 3: Spain won at Wembley and Croatia won 2-1 away to the Czech Republic in Prague.

It's a new era for Croatia. Zlatko Dalić stepped down after the World Cup round-of-32 exit to Portugal, and in July the federation brought back Slaven Bilić, returning to the job fourteen years after his first spell. In Prague it was Luka Modrić — still running the show at 41 — who opened the scoring; Adam Karabec equalised for the Czechs before Pašalić headed the winner on 77 minutes.

Recent head-to-heads, translated into Pleno al 15 boxes

Spain and Croatia have met a lot over the past decade, and rarely with a tidy scoreline. Here are the last five competitive meetings:

One caveat: the Pleno al 15 is settled on the score at the end of normal time (the 2023 final was goalless and Copenhagen was 3-3 before extra time). Even so, the pattern is striking — when Spain beat Croatia they tend to do it by a distance, and Croatia have failed to score in three of the last five.

What to put in the Spain v Croatia Pleno al 15

There's no sure thing, as Wembley just proved. But the numbers do point somewhere:

1. Spain's box: 0 is once again the least likely option. They scored three at Wembley and are 39 games unbeaten; at home, 2 and M make the most sense.
2. Croatia's box: 0 and 1 are the sensible base. Croatia have drawn a blank in three of the last five meetings, though they arrive buoyed by the win in Prague.
3. Watch the rotation: it's four games in eleven days (Wembley, Seville, Oviedo, Split), so De la Fuente may share out the minutes. Saturday's heroes Baena and Oyarzabal have a real shout of starting.
4. If you're playing several columns or running a prediction league, spread the risk: one column on 2-0, one on 2-1 and, if you want to stand out, an M for Spain.

A jornada 10 with no La Liga and fifteen international fixtures

Because of the international break, jornada 10 is made up entirely of fifteen national-team games between Tuesday and Thursday. Beyond the Pleno al 15, there's another one Wembley watchers will want to follow: Czechia v England, with Tuchel's side needing a response. All fifteen fixtures, with dates, are on the jornada 10 page.

• Tuesday 29 September: Luxembourg v Iceland, Slovakia v Kazakhstan, Czechia v England, Slovenia v North Macedonia, Bulgaria v Estonia, San Marino v Albania, Scotland v Switzerland and Spain v Croatia.
• Thursday 1 October: Azerbaijan v Liechtenstein, Greece v Netherlands, Germany v Serbia, Republic of Ireland v Austria, Wales v Norway, Malta v Gibraltar and Denmark v Portugal.

After that, Spain's Nations League campaign continues against the Czech Republic in Oviedo on Saturday 3 October, before the return fixture with Croatia in Split on Tuesday 6 October.

And if you'll be arguing with your mates on Tuesday about whether Oyarzabal scores again or Modrić gives Spain a scare, why not settle it properly? On quiniPrats you can set up a prediction league with friends in a couple of minutes: everyone makes their picks and the table updates itself. Here's how it works if you fancy giving it a go.