Matchday 6 preview: all 15 games and kick-off times

All 15 matches on Spain’s matchday 6 quiniela coupon, with kick-off times and the market, public and forecaster probabilities. No tips — just the numbers.

Matchday 6 preview, Spanish quiniela 2026-27: all 15 fixtures, every kick-off time and the full probability split for each one, before the coupon closes. «La quiniela» is Spain's state football pool — one coupon, fourteen matches scored 1 (home win), X (draw) or 2 (away win), plus a fifteenth box called the Pleno al 15 where you pick a goal count for each team. This round starts on Friday 21:00 CEST with Sevilla - Valencia and does not finish until Monday 21:00 CEST, with Villarreal - Betis. All times are Spanish peninsular time (CEST). There is a €1,000,000 rollover jackpot on the line, and three sets of percentages that emphatically do not agree: the market (Betfair-implied), the public (the state operator's own coupon percentages) and the eduardolosilla.es forecasters. This is not a tip sheet and not a coupon — just the numbers, and what is interesting about them.

The four fixtures worth arguing about

10. Valladolid - Real Oviedo

The most open match on the whole coupon. The market splits it 37.84% / 31.03% / 31.13%, leaving just 6.81 points between its most and least likely outcome — near enough a three-sided coin. The second-division table is just as tight: Valladolid sit 16th on 4 points, Oviedo 15th on 5, both after four games. The coupon's own history leans far harder one way: 21 home wins, 9 draws and 4 away wins all-time, and 4 home wins with nothing else in the last ten meetings. The public tilts mildly that way too — 44% on the home side, 6.16 points above the market — and drains the away sign down to 22%.

8. Cádiz - Las Palmas

The second-flattest box: 36.55% / 28.41% / 35.04%, a spread of only 8.14 points. What makes it odd is that the market still has Cádiz as marginal favourites even though they arrive 18th on 3 points from four games, while Las Palmas are 10th on 7. Home advantage versus league position, priced almost to a standstill. The public reads it the other way: 36% on the away win, 34% on the draw, and the home sign cut to 30% — 6.55 points below the market. On the coupon this fixture has produced 11 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins.

6. Sevilla - Valencia

The match that opens the round, Friday 21:00 CEST at the Sánchez-Pizjuán, is also the biggest top-flight disagreement. The market splits it 44.45% / 29.32% / 26.23% — a clear favourite, but with a spread of only 18.22 points. The public is far more certain and puts 63% on the home win. The context explains the enthusiasm: Sevilla have taken 7 points from 12 and sit sixth, while Valencia arrive bottom on a single point, without a win in four, and with an injury list Spanish outlets put at somewhere between nine and eleven absentees, Guido Rodríguez and Diakhaby among them. Even so, 44% is not a certainty: the market still leaves more than 55% spread across the draw and the away win.

13. Eibar Women - Badalona Women

Liga F, Spain's women's top division, shares the coupon this season, and this is its most open box: 39.68% / 29.49% / 30.83%, a spread of 10.19 points, with the away win priced above the draw despite Eibar being at home. There is no coupon precedent for this fixture — Liga F only joined recently — so there is no history to weigh the price against. What there is instead is a vast gap in opinion: the public puts 62% on the home win, 22.32 points above the market, and leaves the away sign at 16% where the market has it at nearly double that.

Where the crowd and the money part company

Subtract the market percentage from the public percentage, sign by sign, and you can see where the coupons are piling up. A positive number means the crowd is backing that sign harder than the money prices it. That is an observation, not an instruction.

• 14. Madrid CFF - Sevilla Women — by far the widest gap of the round: the public puts 76% on the home win where the market prices it at 40.46%, a gap of 35.54 points. Madrid CFF have won both their opening games, 3-1 each time, while Sevilla began the season losing 0-4 to Barcelona; the Losilla forecasters land in between at 64.25%.
• 13. Eibar Women - Badalona Women — 22.32 points extra on the home win, in a match the market treats as close to a three-way toss-up.
• 6. Sevilla - Valencia — 18.55 points extra on the home win and 12.23 points less on the away win.
• 7. Villarreal - Betis — the only clear gap running the other way: the market makes Villarreal favourites at 50.29%, but the public gives them only 40%, 10.29 points less. Villarreal are 17th on 2 points, Betis fourth on 9, and the crowd appears to be reading the table rather than the venue.
• 1. Athletic Club - Elche — the market prices the home win at 66.58%; the public has it at 82% and the forecasters higher still, 85.1%.

All 15 matches: kick-off times and probabilities

The first fourteen boxes with the market's 1 / X / 2 split, then the Pleno al 15. All times Spanish peninsular time (CEST).

• 1. Athletic Club - Elche · Saturday 18:30 CEST — 1: 66.58% · X: 19.95% · 2: 13.47%
• 2. Levante - Barcelona · Sunday 16:15 CEST — 1: 6.97% · X: 11.88% · 2: 81.15%
• 3. Osasuna - Espanyol · Saturday 16:15 CEST — 1: 45.67% · X: 28.65% · 2: 25.68%
• 4. Racing de Santander - Alavés · Saturday 14:00 CEST — 1: 39.31% · X: 26.88% · 2: 33.81%
• 5. Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano · Saturday 21:00 CEST — 1: 84.75% · X: 10.4% · 2: 4.85%
• 6. Sevilla - Valencia · Friday 21:00 CEST — 1: 44.45% · X: 29.32% · 2: 26.23%
• 7. Villarreal - Betis · Monday 21:00 CEST — 1: 50.29% · X: 24.49% · 2: 25.22%
• 8. Cádiz - Las Palmas · Saturday 16:15 CEST — 1: 36.55% · X: 28.41% · 2: 35.04%
• 9. Tenerife - Leganés · Sunday 21:00 CEST — 1: 41.31% · X: 30.78% · 2: 27.91%
• 10. Valladolid - Real Oviedo · Sunday 16:15 CEST — 1: 37.84% · X: 31.03% · 2: 31.13%
• 11. Alavés Women - Granada Women · Sunday 12:00 CEST — 1: 51.09% · X: 27.68% · 2: 21.23%
• 12. Logroño Women - Valencia Women · Sunday 17:00 CEST — 1: 47.61% · X: 23.37% · 2: 29.02%
• 13. Eibar Women - Badalona Women · Sunday 19:30 CEST — 1: 39.68% · X: 29.49% · 2: 30.83%
• 14. Madrid CFF - Sevilla Women · Saturday 16:30 CEST — 1: 40.46% · X: 26.61% · 2: 32.93%
• 15. Pleno al 15 · Real Sociedad - Atlético de Madrid · Sunday 21:00 CEST — Real Sociedad 0: 28.51% / 1: 35.78% / 2: 22.45% / M: 13.26% — Atlético de Madrid 0: 23.84% / 1: 34.18% / 2: 24.51% / M: 17.47%

The Pleno al 15 works differently from the other fourteen boxes: instead of picking a sign, you pick how many goals each team will score. There are four options per team — 0, 1, 2 and M — where M means "2 or more". For this Real Sociedad - Atlético de Madrid the market makes 1 the single likeliest tally for both sides, but at under 36% each: by design, it is the hardest box on the coupon.

What the coupon's history says

The quiniela keeps a record of every fixture that has ever appeared on it, and sometimes that record and today's price point in different directions.

• Sevilla - Valencia is the most-played fixture on this coupon: 47 home wins, 18 draws, 19 away wins. But the last ten split 4-2-4, and the most recent meeting finished 0-2 to the visitors, which takes a good deal of shine off the all-time figure.
• Valladolid - Real Oviedo: 21-9-4 to the home side and 4 home wins in the last ten — a long way above the 37.84% the market gives it today.
• Levante - Barcelona: the history is narrow — 3 home wins, 5 draws, 9 away wins, and a 2-3 last time — yet the market sees no doubt at all and puts 81.15% on the away win. Here the past is far closer than the price.
• Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano: 19-3-1, and 5 home wins in the last ten. History and market (84.75% on the home win) agree exactly.
• Osasuna - Espanyol: 22-8-10, but the last meeting ended 1-2 and the market stops at 45.67%.
• All four Liga F boxes (11 to 14) come back 0-0-0: no precedent on the quiniela. That says nothing about the teams — only that these fixtures have never been on the coupon before.

Once you have the times and the numbers, the fun part is comparing your coupon with your friends'. On quiniPrats you can open a private pool for matchday 6, invite whoever you like, and watch everyone's picks line up side by side as the results come in. No rush — the round is the same for everybody.