Quiniela matchday 15 preview: 15 matches and times

All 15 matches of quiniela matchday 15, a European week, with kickoff times and market probabilities, and where the crowd and the market disagree.

Our quiniela matchday 15 preview covers a European week: all 15 matches on this coupon come from the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, and below you will find every kickoff time, the probabilities and what the numbers say. La quiniela is Spain's state-run football pools: players call 1 (home win), X (draw) or 2 (away win) on 14 matches, plus a fifteenth 'Pleno al 15' on the exact goals. The action starts on Tuesday at 21:00 with six matches at once, including the Pleno al 15, Paris Saint-Germain - FC Barcelona, and ends on Thursday at 21:00 with Celtic - Celta Vigo and Lillestrøm - Real Sociedad. All times are Spanish peninsular time (CEST).

A note on method: this is analysis, not a tip sheet or a filled-in coupon. The figures come from three different series that are worth keeping apart: the market (Betfair-implied probability, real money at stake), the public (how players actually filled in their coupons, per Spain's state lottery) and the users of eduardolosilla.es. Each series adds up to 100 for every match.

The matches that decide the round

Celtic - Celta Vigo: the most open match on the coupon

This is the tightest call of matchday 15. The market splits it 35.22% / 27.14% / 37.64% (1/X/2), with only 10.5 points between the most and least likely outcome: close to a three-way coin flip, tilted slightly towards Celta. It is played on Thursday 21:00 CEST at Celtic Park in the third round of the Europa League league phase, and both sides arrive pointless after two games. Claudio Giráldez's Celta have lost to Omonia and Juventus, and the coach has admitted his team are finding it hard to win. For both clubs, points here are starting to feel essential.

Como - Manchester United: Fàbregas against a United side searching for answers

The second-closest match: 41.4% / 25.69% / 32.91%, a spread of 15.71 points. Cesc Fàbregas's Como host Manchester United on Wednesday 18:45 CEST at the Sinigaglia, with both sides level on 3 points after two rounds. United arrive off a 2-0 defeat away at Atlético Madrid. That the market makes the home side favourites, rather than the bigger name, says plenty about how this tie is viewed.

Stuttgart - Atlético Madrid: Atlético favoured on the road

The market has it 29.68% / 25.24% / 45.08%: an away favourite, but far from settled (spread of 19.84 points). Stuttgart have won both their Champions League games, 3-1 against Viking and 3-0 away at Slovan Bratislava, while Atlético lost at Anfield on matchday one and bounced back with a 2-0 win over Manchester United. Kickoff is Tuesday 21:00 CEST. It is also one of the matches where the public strays furthest from the market, as the next section shows.

Manchester City - AEK Athens: as close to settled as it gets

At 87.39% / 8.67% / 3.94%, this is the clearest favourite on the coupon, with a spread of 83.45 points. Even so, 87.39% is not 100%: it leaves more than one game in eight in which City fail to win. Curiously, the public is less emphatic than the money, putting 81% on the 1, while eduardolosilla.es users go all the way to 97.51%. Kickoff is Tuesday 21:00 CEST.

Where the public and the market disagree

For each outcome we compare the public's share with the market's. A positive number means the public is putting more weight on that outcome than the market prices in; a negative one means the opposite. This is an observation about a crowd, not a recommendation: sometimes the crowd knows something, and sometimes it simply follows the bigger name.

The biggest gap of the week is Getafe - Lugano in the Conference League. The market makes it 44.65% / 25.85% / 29.5%, a moderate home favourite, but the public has piled onto the 1 up to 62%: +17.35 points above the market, with the 2 at -14.5. The market sees a far more dangerous Lugano than Spanish players do.

Close behind is Club Brugge - Lens: the market at 46.18% / 24.33% / 29.49% and the public at 62% / 22% / 16%, which means +15.82 points on the 1 and -13.49 on the 2. And in Liverpool - Villarreal the public also leans harder on the favourite: 74% for Liverpool against the market's 64.37% (+9.63 points).

Two gaps run the other way and deserve a look. In Stuttgart - Atlético Madrid the public pushes Atlético (+8.92 points on the 2) at Stuttgart's expense (-8.68 on the 1). And in Celtic - Celta Vigo the opposite of what you might expect from Spanish punters happens: the public gives Celta -8.64 points less than the market, and Celtic +5.78 more.

All 15 matches: kickoff times and probabilities

Each line shows the kickoff time and the market probability for 1, X and 2; every row adds up to 100. Line 15 is the Pleno al 15, with the probability of each goal count for each team.

• 1. Porto - PSV Eindhoven · Tuesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 59.36% · X: 21.68% · 2: 18.96%
• 2. Liverpool - Villarreal · Tuesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 64.37% · X: 20.05% · 2: 15.58%
• 3. Manchester City - AEK Athens · Tuesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 87.39% · X: 8.67% · 2: 3.94%
• 4. Napoli - Bodø/Glimt · Tuesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 58.98% · X: 21.83% · 2: 19.19%
• 5. Stuttgart - Atlético Madrid · Tuesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 29.68% · X: 25.24% · 2: 45.08%
• 6. Como - Manchester United · Wednesday 18:45 CEST — 1: 41.4% · X: 25.69% · 2: 32.91%
• 7. Bayern Munich - Arsenal · Wednesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 45.82% · X: 25.09% · 2: 29.09%
• 8. Club Brugge - Lens · Wednesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 46.18% · X: 24.33% · 2: 29.49%
• 9. Inter - Shakhtar Donetsk · Wednesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 79.52% · X: 12.82% · 2: 7.66%
• 10. Real Betis - Feyenoord · Wednesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 62.95% · X: 19.75% · 2: 17.3%
• 11. Real Madrid - RB Leipzig · Wednesday 21:00 CEST — 1: 76.46% · X: 13.84% · 2: 9.7%
• 12. Celtic - Celta Vigo · Thursday 21:00 CEST — 1: 35.22% · X: 27.14% · 2: 37.64%
• 13. Lillestrøm - Real Sociedad · Thursday 21:00 CEST — 1: 17.15% · X: 21.17% · 2: 61.68%
• 14. Getafe - Lugano · Thursday 18:45 CEST — 1: 44.65% · X: 25.85% · 2: 29.5%
• 15. Pleno al 15 · Paris Saint-Germain - FC Barcelona · Tuesday 21:00 CEST — Paris Saint-Germain 0: 25.57% / 1: 34.87% / 2: 23.78% / M: 15.78% — FC Barcelona 0: 24.55% / 1: 34.48% / 2: 24.21% / M: 16.76%

The Pleno al 15 works differently from the other fourteen: instead of 1, X or 2, you call how many goals each team scores, choosing 0, 1, 2 or M, where M means '3 or more'. This week it is Paris Saint-Germain - FC Barcelona on Tuesday 21:00 CEST, and here the public and the market speak different languages: the market gives PSG a 15.78% chance of scoring 3 or more, but the public has put 31% there; for Barça it is 16.76% in the market against 38% from the public. The public expects a goal-fest; the market, something much more ordinary.

What the history says

This is usually the section where we set the market against decades of quiniela results. This week there is nothing to compare: none of the fourteen fixtures has any precedent in the quiniela (0/0/0 across the board), and none has appeared on the coupon in the last five seasons. That is normal in a European week, which throws together clubs that rarely meet.

That has a practical consequence for anyone studying the round: with no history of its own, the market is the only numerical reference with money behind it, and the gaps with the public carry more weight than usual. It also explains why eduardolosilla.es users go to extremes when big names are involved: for Real Madrid - RB Leipzig they reach 96.09% on the 1, while the market stays at 76.46%. A 76.46% favourite still fails to win roughly one time in four.

If you fancy playing matchday 15 with friends, you can set up a private league on quiniPrats and compare your calls match by match, purely for the fun of a Champions League week.