Quiniela matchday 16 preview: kick-off times and El Clásico

Spanish football pools, matchday 16: all 15 matches with kick-off times and market probabilities, El Clásico as the Pleno al 15, and where the crowd disagrees.

Our quiniela matchday 16 preview has El Clásico as its Pleno al 15. Below are all 15 matches on the coupon, their kick-off times and what the probabilities say about them. La Quiniela is Spain's state-run football pool: each week players call 14 matches as 1 (home win), X (draw) or 2 (away win), plus a fifteenth, the Pleno al 15, where you predict how many goals each side scores. This round starts on Saturday at 14:00 with Rayo Vallecano v Elche and finishes on Monday at 21:00 with Sevilla v Osasuna. All times in this article are Spanish peninsular time. Watch the clocks, though: Spain goes back an hour overnight from Saturday to Sunday, so Saturday's games are on summer time (CEST) and Sunday's and Monday's on winter time (CET). The coupon has seven Primera matches, three from Segunda and four from Liga F, Spain's top women's league, and the jackpot stands at €2,500,000.

A note on method: this is analysis, not a tip sheet, and you won't find a coupon here. The figures come from three separate series, and they shouldn't be mixed up. The market is the probability implied by Betfair prices, with real money behind it. The public is how players actually filled in their coupons with the state lottery operator, Loterías y Apuestas del Estado. The quinielistas are the predictions made by users of eduardolosilla.es. Each series adds up to 100 per match, but each one answers a different question: what is likely, what people are playing, and what a community of fans believes. And remember that a probability is not a prophecy. Clear favourites still lose, and an even game can still end in a rout.

The matches that will decide the round

Deportivo Women v Alavés Women: the most open match on the coupon

Nothing on the coupon is closer. The market splits it 37.98% / 28.34% / 33.68% (1/X/2), with just 9.64 points between the most and least likely outcomes, which makes it a three-sided coin for all practical purposes. It kicks off on Sunday at 12:45 and opens Sunday's Liga F action. Deportivo won 3-2 away at Eibar's Ipurua on matchday seven, while Alavés drew 1-1 with Sevilla at Mendizorroza. The striking part isn't on the pitch, though. It's on the coupons: the public has loaded the home win up to 61%, so this is also one of the round's biggest gaps between crowd and market, which we come back to below. There's no history to lean on either, because the fixture has never appeared on the quiniela before.

Almost as tight is Logroño Women v Badalona Women on Saturday at 18:15: 37.9% / 27.84% / 34.26%, a spread of 10.06 points. Here, unlike the game at Abegondo, the public splits almost exactly like the market, at 35% / 31% / 34%.

Celta Vigo v Real Betis: the market leans Betis, the public leans hard

This is the most open Primera match of the round: 32.94% / 27.61% / 39.45%, a spread of 11.84 points that puts it close to a coin toss. It's played on Sunday at 16:15 at Balaídos. Betis arrive after losing to Barcelona on matchday nine, the defeat that gave the leaders nine wins out of nine. Even so, the public has 48% on the 2 and only 22% on the 1. That's 8.55 points more than the market for Betis and 10.94 fewer for Celta, the largest gap of the round in favour of an away side. The head-to-head record points the other way, towards Vigo, as the history section at the end shows.

Leganés v Mallorca: an away favourite at Butarque, with no margin

In Segunda, the tightest match is on Saturday at 16:15 at Butarque: 29.55% / 29.09% / 41.36%, a spread of 12.27 points. Mallorca, playing in the second tier this season, beat Las Palmas 3-1 at Son Moix a few rounds ago, and the market makes them favourites. But 41.36% is no guarantee: the market keeps 29.09% for the draw and 29.55% for a Leganés win. Once again the public exaggerates the lean, with 49% on the 2 (+7.64 points over the market) and 22% on the 1 (-7.55). Their last meeting on the coupon, in 2024/25, ended 0-1.

Pleno al 15, Barcelona v Real Madrid: a Clásico the public expects to be full of goals

The Pleno al 15 is Sunday's Clásico at 21:00 at the Spotify Camp Nou. Barcelona arrive top of the table with a perfect nine wins from nine. Real Madrid travel without Vinícius, who is serving a four-match ban after his red card against Villarreal. The Pleno isn't played as 1, X or 2. You pick each team's goal count, and here the public and the market speak different languages. The market spreads Barça across 1 goal (29.14%), 2 goals (26.9%) and M (28.18%), and sees Madrid most likely on 0 (34.78%) or 1 (36.73%). The public, by contrast, has put 50% on Barcelona's M and only 8% on Madrid scoring 0. The crowd pictures an open, high-scoring game. The money sees something a good deal tighter.

At the other extreme, the closest thing to a settled match is Atlético Madrid v Deportivo La Coruña on Saturday at 21:00: 74.37% / 16.29% / 9.34%, a spread of 65.03 points. Even so, the market still keeps 16.29% for the draw and 9.34% for an away upset. The eduardolosilla.es quinielistas go much further than the money, with 92.76% on the 1. The round's other clear favourite is Real Madrid Women v Tenerife Women on Saturday at 16:00 (64.54% / 21.21% / 14.25%).

Where the public and the market disagree

For each outcome we compare the public's percentage with the market's. A positive number means the public is putting more weight on that outcome than the market gives it, and a negative one means the opposite. This describes what a crowd is doing. It isn't a recommendation: sometimes the crowd knows something the price hasn't caught up with yet, and sometimes it just follows the bigger name.

The biggest gap of the round is in Real Sociedad v Levante on Sunday at 18:30. The market sees a clear but not overwhelming home favourite, at 55.22% / 23.59% / 21.19%, while the public has pushed the 1 up to 79%. That's +23.78 points on the 1, with the X at -10.59 and the 2 at -13.19. Put another way, the money sees Levante taking something from Anoeta as far more plausible (23.59% for a draw and 21.19% for a win) than the public does, at just 13% and 8%.

Next comes Deportivo Women v Alavés Women: +23.02 on the 1 and -20.68 on the 2. This one stands out even more, because it comes from the most evenly matched game on the coupon. The public has turned a coin toss into a clear favourite.

Third is Real Madrid Women v Tenerife Women: the market has it at 64.54% / 21.21% / 14.25% and the public at 85% / 9% / 6%, so +20.46 points on the 1 and -12.21 on the X. Sevilla v Osasuna on Monday at 21:00 follows the same pattern: the market gives the 1 48.5% and the public 65% (+16.5 points), with Osasuna's 2 at -12.41.

Almost all of these gaps have one thing in common. The public backs the better-known home side and takes weight off the draw. The only sizeable gaps running the other way are Celta v Betis and Leganés v Mallorca, where the crowd pushes the away side beyond what the market prices.

All 15 matches: kick-off times and probabilities

Each line gives the day, the Spanish kick-off time and the market probability for the 1, the X and the 2. Every row adds up to 100. Saturday's times are CEST and Sunday's and Monday's are CET, after the clocks go back. Line 15 is the Pleno al 15, with the probability of each goal count for each team.

• 1. Rayo Vallecano - Elche · Saturday 14:00 CEST — 1: 53.75% · X: 25.36% · 2: 20.89%
• 2. Valencia - Villarreal · Saturday 18:30 CEST — 1: 29.96% · X: 26.36% · 2: 43.68%
• 3. Atlético Madrid - Deportivo La Coruña · Saturday 21:00 CEST — 1: 74.37% · X: 16.29% · 2: 9.34%
• 4. Athletic Club - Getafe · Sunday 14:00 CET — 1: 58.3% · X: 24.96% · 2: 16.74%
• 5. Celta Vigo - Real Betis · Sunday 16:15 CET — 1: 32.94% · X: 27.61% · 2: 39.45%
• 6. Real Sociedad - Levante · Sunday 18:30 CET — 1: 55.22% · X: 23.59% · 2: 21.19%
• 7. Sevilla - Osasuna · Monday 21:00 CET — 1: 48.5% · X: 28.09% · 2: 23.41%
• 8. Leganés - Mallorca · Saturday 16:15 CEST — 1: 29.55% · X: 29.09% · 2: 41.36%
• 9. Almería - Real Oviedo · Saturday 21:00 CEST — 1: 57.21% · X: 24.61% · 2: 18.18%
• 10. Sabadell - Tenerife · Sunday 14:00 CET — 1: 48.74% · X: 29.31% · 2: 21.95%
• 11. Logroño Women - Badalona Women · Saturday 18:15 CEST — 1: 37.9% · X: 27.84% · 2: 34.26%
• 12. Deportivo Women - Alavés Women · Sunday 12:45 CET — 1: 37.98% · X: 28.34% · 2: 33.68%
• 13. Eibar Women - Madrid CFF · Sunday 17:00 CET — 1: 26.51% · X: 28.19% · 2: 45.3%
• 14. Real Madrid Women - Tenerife Women · Saturday 16:00 CEST — 1: 64.54% · X: 21.21% · 2: 14.25%
• 15. Pleno al 15 · Barcelona - Real Madrid · Sunday 21:00 CET — Barcelona 0: 15.78% / 1: 29.14% / 2: 26.9% / M: 28.18% — Real Madrid 0: 34.78% / 1: 36.73% / 2: 19.4% / M: 9.09%

The Pleno al 15 works differently from the other fourteen. Instead of 1, X or 2, you predict how many goals each team scores, choosing 0, 1, 2 or M for each side, where M means "3 or more". You only get it right if both teams' goal counts match, and it only counts towards the top prize, the one that also requires all fourteen other matches to be correct.

What the history says

The quiniela archive records how often each fixture has ended 1, X or 2 whenever it appeared on the coupon. It isn't a probability, because it mixes eras, squads and divisions. What it does show is where today's market breaks with a long-standing habit.

The clearest clash is Athletic Club v Getafe on Sunday at 14:00. The market gives the 1 58.3% and the X only 24.96%, and the public is even keener on the home win at 69%. The archive tells a different story: 8 home wins, 8 draws and 5 away wins overall. In the recent stretch the draw dominates, with 6 Xs against a single home win and 2 away wins. The last five seasons on the coupon finished 0-1, 1-1, 2-2, 0-0 and 1-1, so Athletic haven't won this fixture in that period.

Valencia v Villarreal on Saturday at 18:30 also runs against the record. Historically Valencia have 14 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats in this fixture, but the last meeting on the coupon, in 2025/26, ended 0-2, and today's market favours Villarreal at 43.68% against 29.96%.

In Celta v Betis the archive leans towards the home side (21 / 12 / 9), and over the last five seasons Celta have not lost at home to Betis on the coupon: 1-1, 3-2, 2-1, 1-0 and 0-0. That is exactly the match where the public has piled into the 2.

History and market agree on Atlético Madrid v Deportivo (37 / 6 / 5 in the home side's favour, even though the fixture hasn't been on the coupon in at least five seasons) and on Sevilla v Osasuna (31 / 11 / 7). They also agree on Eibar Women v Madrid CFF, where Madrid CFF have won 4 of the 5 previous meetings (1-3, 1-2 and 1-6 in the last three seasons) and the market gives them 45.3%. In Rayo Vallecano v Elche the all-time record favours the visitors (9 / 2 / 12), but the fixture's three appearances on the coupon in the last five seasons were all Rayo wins (1-0, 2-1 and 2-1), which fits better with the 53.75% the market gives Rayo today.

Then there are the fixtures with no past. Deportivo Women v Alavés Women has no precedent on the quiniela (0/0/0), which is normal for Liga F, a recent addition to the coupon. Logroño Women v Badalona Women and Sabadell v Tenerife have one previous meeting each, both away wins, and that's far too little to read anything into.

If you fancy following El Clásico and the rest of matchday 16 with friends, you can set up a private league on quiniPrats and compare your calls match by match, purely for the fun of it.