Quiniela matchday 20 preview: fixtures and kick-offs

All 15 quiniela matchday 20 fixtures with kick-off times and probabilities: the most open game, and where the public and the market disagree.

This quiniela matchday 20 preview (previa jornada 20) lists all 15 fixtures on the quiniela jornada 20 coupon, their kick-off times and what the probabilities say about each one. The round starts on Saturday 14:00 (7 November) with Málaga v Racing Santander and ends on Sunday 21:00 (8 November) with the Pleno al 15, Atlético Madrid v Barcelona. All times in this article are Spanish peninsular time (CET). The 14 coupon matches mix seven LaLiga games, three from the second tier and four from Liga F, Spain's top women's league; the Pleno al 15 is another LaLiga game, and the jackpot stands at €2.2 million.

If la quiniela is new to you: it is Spain's state-run football pools, operated by Loterías y Apuestas del Estado (LAE). Each coupon lists 14 matches, and for each one you mark 1 (home win), X (draw) or 2 (away win). A fifteenth match, the Pleno al 15, asks how many goals each side will score instead.

A word on the numbers. We use three separate series, and they are not three opinions about the same thing. The market is the probability implied by Betfair prices: real money at stake, and the closest thing to a true probability. The public is how bettors actually filled in their coupons, according to LAE's own percentages: a crowd, not a forecast. The third series comes from users of eduardolosilla.es. And a probability is not a prophecy: even a clear favourite loses fairly often.

The matches that will decide the round

Cádiz v Real Oviedo (Saturday 16:15)

This is the most open match on the coupon. The market splits it 34.5% / 29.3% / 36.1%, with just 6.8 points between the most and least likely outcome: close to a three-sided coin. The public sees it just as evenly (31% / 34% / 35%), though it leans 4.7 points harder on the draw than the money does. It is a second-tier meeting, and the visitors were playing in LaLiga last season. The last meeting in the quiniela record, in 2024-25, ended in a 2-0 home win for Cádiz.

Sporting Gijón v Real Valladolid (Sunday 18:30)

Almost as open as far as the money is concerned: 40.6% / 29.3% / 30.1%, a gap of 11.3 points, below the 12-point line that separates a genuinely open match from one with a clear favourite. The public, however, has made up its mind: 61% of coupons carry the 1, 20.4 points more than the market prices it, while the away win sits at only 14%. Their last meeting at El Molinón, on 22 February 2026, finished 2-2, and Valladolid's previous visit in the record, in 2023-24, ended 1-1.

Málaga v Racing Santander (Saturday 14:00)

The opening game of the round has no clear owner either: the market has it at 39.8% / 26.4% / 33.8%, a margin of 13.4 points. Málaga and Racing came up from the second tier together and last met at La Rosaleda in May, with Racing's promotion already secured. In the quiniela record their last two meetings were both draws (0-0 in 2024-25 and 1-1 in 2025-26), and the public gives the X 31%, 4.6 points more than the market.

Valencia v Real Madrid (Saturday 21:00)

At the other extreme is the match the money considers most settled: 10.3% / 15.9% / 73.8%, a 63.5-point gap between the 2 and the 1. The public goes even further (82% on the 2), and eduardolosilla.es users reach 92.8%. It is worth remembering what 73.8% means: roughly one time in four, the favourite does not win. Even so, it is the closest thing to a foregone conclusion this round has.

Where the public and the market disagree

When the public's share on an outcome is higher than the market's, the crowd is putting weight where the money is not. That says nothing about who is right; it shows where opinions are furthest apart. These are the three widest gaps on matchday 20.

Tenerife Women v Alavés Women (Sunday 13:00)

The biggest gap on the coupon. The market gives Tenerife a 50.6% chance of winning; the public has the 1 on 73% of its coupons, 22.4 points more. The draw and the away win sit 10.2 and 12.2 points below what the money implies. Where the market sees a favourite, the public sees something close to a banker.

Eibar Women v Real Sociedad Women (Saturday 17:15)

Here the gap runs the opposite way from usual. The market makes Real Sociedad favourites (49.2% on the 2, against 23.4% on the 1), but the public splits its coupons 42% / 29% / 29%: 18.6 points more on the 1 than the money implies, and 20.2 fewer on the 2. eduardolosilla.es users, on the other hand, line up with the market (50.1% on the 2), so this gap belongs to LAE's public alone.

Athletic Club Women v Real Madrid Women (Saturday 16:00)

The market already has Real Madrid as favourites (48.1%), but the public inflates that to 66%, 17.9 points more. It is the most common pattern of the round: the public tends to pile onto the favourite. The same happens in Sporting Gijón v Real Valladolid (20.4 extra points on the 1) and Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano (16.7 extra points on the 1).

The Pleno al 15 shows an even more striking split, measured differently: the market gives a 33.3% chance that Atlético fail to score, yet only 7% of the public marked it that way.

All 15 matches: kick-off times and probabilities

Market (Betfair) probabilities for each outcome, in coupon order. Times are Spanish peninsular time (CET).

• 1. Málaga v Racing Santander · Saturday 14:00 — 1: 39.8% · X: 26.4% · 2: 33.8%
• 2. Osasuna v Athletic Club · Saturday 18:30 — 1: 27.1% · X: 27.7% · 2: 45.2%
• 3. Valencia v Real Madrid · Saturday 21:00 — 1: 10.3% · X: 15.9% · 2: 73.8%
• 4. Elche v Real Betis · Sunday 14:00 — 1: 29.5% · X: 25.6% · 2: 44.9%
• 5. Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano · Sunday 16:15 — 1: 56.3% · X: 22.9% · 2: 20.8%
• 6. Celta Vigo v Levante · Sunday 18:30 — 1: 52.6% · X: 25.4% · 2: 22.1%
• 7. Villarreal v Getafe · Sunday 18:30 — 1: 65.8% · X: 20.9% · 2: 13.2%
• 8. Cádiz v Real Oviedo · Saturday 16:15 — 1: 34.5% · X: 29.3% · 2: 36.1%
• 9. Girona v Almería · Sunday 16:15 — 1: 45.7% · X: 26.4% · 2: 27.9%
• 10. Sporting Gijón v Real Valladolid · Sunday 18:30 — 1: 40.6% · X: 29.3% · 2: 30.1%
• 11. Athletic Club Women v Real Madrid Women · Saturday 16:00 — 1: 25.4% · X: 26.5% · 2: 48.1%
• 12. Logroño Women v Sevilla Women · Sunday 12:00 — 1: 44.6% · X: 27.0% · 2: 28.3%
• 13. Eibar Women v Real Sociedad Women · Saturday 17:15 — 1: 23.4% · X: 27.4% · 2: 49.2%
• 14. Tenerife Women v Alavés Women · Sunday 13:00 — 1: 50.6% · X: 26.2% · 2: 23.1%
• 15. Pleno al 15 · Atlético Madrid v Barcelona · Sunday 21:00 — Atlético Madrid 0: 33.3% / 1: 36.6% / 2: 20.1% / M: 10.0% — Barcelona 0: 17.9% / 1: 30.8% / 2: 26.5% / M: 24.7%

The Pleno al 15 works differently from the other fourteen: instead of 1, X or 2, you predict how many goals each team scores, choosing 0, 1, 2 or M, where M means “3 or more”. For Atlético Madrid v Barcelona, the market's most likely outcome is one Atlético goal (36.6%); for Barcelona, one goal also leads (30.8%), but 2 (26.5%) and M (24.7%) are close behind.

What the history says

The most striking case is Valencia v Real Madrid. In the quiniela record, Valencia have won this fixture 38 times, with 24 draws and 29 away wins: the 1 is the most common result. Yet the market gives Valencia only 10.3%. Recent form explains part of the gap: Real Madrid won at Mestalla in each of the last two seasons (1-2 in 2024-25 and 0-2 in 2025-26).

In Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano history backs the home side (15 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats) and so does the public (73% on the 1, against the market's 56.3%). But Rayo won both of the last two meetings: 1-2 in 2024-25 and 0-1 in 2025-26.

In Liga F, Eibar Women v Real Sociedad Women has a record that runs straight into the public's view: in five meetings on the quiniela, Eibar have never won (2 draws, 3 defeats, the latest a 0-3 in 2025-26). The market agrees with that history; the 42% of the public backing the 1 does not.

Two of the most open matches tell a similar story. Sporting dominate the record against Valladolid (23 wins, 14 draws, 9 defeats) and Málaga theirs against Racing (18, 4 and 4), but in both cases the last two recorded meetings were draws. And Elche v Real Betis is the only fixture on the coupon where the draw is the most frequent result (11 draws, against 8 home wins and 6 away wins), the latest a 1-1 in 2025-26. The public, meanwhile, puts the 2 on 59% of its coupons.

Elsewhere in Liga F the record is short: Tenerife v Alavés has only two previous meetings on the quiniela (one home win, one draw) and Logroño v Sevilla four. Athletic Club v Real Madrid Women has seven, six of them away wins, in line with the market. With so few games, history counts for little against what the money and the public are saying today.

If you fancy playing matchday 20 with friends, quiniPrats lets you set up a private pool in a couple of minutes, enter your predictions and follow the table match by match over the weekend. Half the fun is arguing over every outcome with your group.