Quiniela matchday 17 preview: Copa del Rey kick-off times

All 15 matches on quiniela matchday 17, every one a Copa del Rey first-round tie: kick-off times, market probabilities, where the public disagrees and what history says.

This quiniela matchday 17 preview covers a slip unlike any before it this season: all 15 matches of quiniela jornada 17 are first-round ties in the Copa del Rey. Below you will find every kick-off time for matchday 17 and what the probabilities say about each tie. It is a midweek round: the action starts on Tuesday 27 October at 20:00 with RSD Alcalá - Las Palmas and wraps up on Thursday 29 at 20:00 with Conquense - Castellón and Laredo - Burgos. All times are Spanish peninsular time, which is now back on CET after the clocks changed.

If la quiniela is new to you: it is Spain's state-run football pools, run by Loterías y Apuestas del Estado (LAE). Each slip lists 14 matches, and for each you mark 1 (home win), X (draw) or 2 (away win). A fifteenth match, the Pleno al 15, asks for the number of goals each side scores. Most weeks the slip is LaLiga; this week the cup has taken it over.

A note on method: this is analysis, not a tip sheet and not a filled-in slip. The figures come from three separate series that should not be confused. The market is the probability implied by Betfair prices, with real money behind it. The public is how bettors actually filled in their slips, according to LAE's own percentages. The third series is what users of eduardolosilla.es predicted. The market is the closest thing to a real probability, but it is not a prophecy: it describes what could happen, not what will.

The format explains most of what you will see in the numbers. The first round is a single match, the lower-ranked club plays at home, and a draw goes to extra time and penalties. That is why the slip is full of away favourites: the market makes the visitors favourites in 13 of the 14 matches. The single exception is one of the most interesting ties of the round. There is no true coin flip either: even the tightest match has a spread of 22.91 points between the most and least likely outcome.

The matches that will decide the round

Don Benito - Extremadura: the Extremadura derby, the most open tie

This is the most balanced match on the slip, and it is still not a toss-up. The market splits it 25.89% / 25.6% / 48.51% (1/X/2), a spread of 22.91 points, the lowest of matchday 17, with Extremadura close to even money. It is played on Tuesday at 20:30 at the Vicente Sanz, and as a regional derby it guarantees a club from Extremadura in the next round. Don Benito come in off a 1-1 home draw with Linares, in which Gorka Santamaría scored after 11 minutes. Extremadura's sporting director, Manuel Mosquera, expects a big travelling support given the short trip, and a hard-fought game.

The public is more hopeful about the hosts than the money is: 32% / 28% / 40%, which works out at +6.11 points on the 1 and -8.51 on the 2.

Deportiva Minera - FC Cartagena: the only home favourite

This is the oddity of the round. The market makes the home side favourites, the only ones on the whole slip: 47.91% / 29% / 23.09%, with a spread of 24.82 points. It is played on Wednesday at 20:30 at the Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal, which Minera have expanded to 2,400 seats with temporary stands. The context helps explain the price. Minera, of the fourth-tier Segunda Federación, have won three in a row and sit a point off the top of their group. FC Cartagena, a division higher in Primera Federación, have just lost 4-1 away to the leaders, Villarreal B. The two sides met this summer in the Trofeo Carabela de Plata, which Cartagena won on penalties.

Xerez - Cádiz: an official derby, 18 years on

Xerez, of Segunda Federación, host Cádiz at Chapín on Wednesday at 21:00. Cádiz play two divisions higher, in Segunda. It is the first official derby between them in 18 years; the last one was in April 2008, also at Chapín. The market prices it 24.05% / 26.33% / 49.62%, a spread of 25.57 points: Cádiz are favourites, but below 50%. Badajoz - Tenerife, on Wednesday at 20:00, looks very similar: 23.65% / 27.83% / 48.52%, with a spread of 24.87 points.

Atlético Calatayud - Osasuna: the closest thing to a done deal

At the other end of the scale is Thursday's 19:00 tie: 6.87% / 15.5% / 77.63%, a spread of 70.76 points, the highest of the round. Osasuna, of the top flight, are the clearest favourites on the slip, but even 77.63% leaves the upset or the draw a little more than one time in five. In a one-off cup tie, that is exactly what people tune in for.

Where the public and the market disagree

For each outcome we compare the public's percentage with the market's. A positive number means the public is putting more weight on that outcome than the market prices it at; a negative one means the opposite. It is an observation about where the crowd is gathering, not an instruction: the public can be right and the market wrong.

The biggest gap of the round, by a distance, is Deportiva Minera - FC Cartagena. The public has filled in 30% / 26% / 44%, which is +20.91 points on the 2 and -17.91 on the 1. Put simply, the money sees a home favourite while the crowd still sees the bigger club. The eduardolosilla.es users lean the same way as the public (32.55% / 22.53% / 44.92%).

Second is Cieza - Granada, on Wednesday at 20:30. The market sees an away favourite, but not an overwhelming one, at 21.25% / 24.5% / 54.25%. The public has turned it into something much clearer: 18% / 15% / 67%, or +12.75 points on the 2 and -9.5 on the X.

Running the other way are Atlético Calatayud - Osasuna and Numancia - Real Oviedo, the only two matches where the public rates the hosts more than ten points above the market: +11.13 and +10.78 on the 1 respectively. In Calatayud the public puts 18% on the 1 against the market's 6.87%; in Soria, 29% against 18.22%.

One pattern runs through almost the whole slip: in 11 of the 14 matches, the public gives the draw less weight than the market does. It is the most repeated trend of the round, and the easiest one to miss.

All 15 matches: kick-off times and probabilities

Each line gives the day, the kick-off time and the market probability for 1, X and 2; every row adds up to 100. All 15 matches are Copa del Rey first-round ties.

• 1. RSD Alcalá - Las Palmas · Tuesday 20:00 CET — 1: 16.58% · X: 21.72% · 2: 61.7%
• 2. Alcoyano - Mallorca · Wednesday 20:00 CET — 1: 12.3% · X: 17.89% · 2: 69.81%
• 3. Arosa - Pontevedra · Tuesday 21:00 CET — 1: 21.91% · X: 25.69% · 2: 52.4%
• 4. Atlético Calatayud - Osasuna · Thursday 19:00 CET — 1: 6.87% · X: 15.5% · 2: 77.63%
• 5. Badajoz - Tenerife · Wednesday 20:00 CET — 1: 23.65% · X: 27.83% · 2: 48.52%
• 6. Cieza - Granada · Wednesday 20:30 CET — 1: 21.25% · X: 24.5% · 2: 54.25%
• 7. Conquense - Castellón · Thursday 20:00 CET — 1: 15.49% · X: 21.42% · 2: 63.09%
• 8. Covadonga - Real Valladolid · Wednesday 20:00 CET — 1: 12.95% · X: 15.5% · 2: 71.55%
• 9. Deportiva Minera - FC Cartagena · Wednesday 20:30 CET — 1: 47.91% · X: 29% · 2: 23.09%
• 10. Don Benito - Extremadura · Tuesday 20:30 CET — 1: 25.89% · X: 25.6% · 2: 48.51%
• 11. Laredo - Burgos · Thursday 20:00 CET — 1: 16.61% · X: 25.14% · 2: 58.25%
• 12. Numancia - Real Oviedo · Wednesday 20:00 CET — 1: 18.22% · X: 25.51% · 2: 56.27%
• 13. Tudelano - Real Zaragoza · Tuesday 21:00 CET — 1: 17.59% · X: 23.98% · 2: 58.43%
• 14. Xerez - Cádiz · Wednesday 21:00 CET — 1: 24.05% · X: 26.33% · 2: 49.62%
• 15. Pleno al 15 · Recreativo de Huelva - Rayo Vallecano · Tuesday 21:00 CET — Recreativo de Huelva 0: 41.34% / 1: 36.52% / 2: 16.13% / M: 6.01% — Rayo Vallecano 0: 13.81% / 1: 27.34% / 2: 27.06% / M: 31.79%

The Pleno al 15 works differently from the other fourteen. You do not pick 1, X or 2; you pick how many goals each team scores, choosing 0, 1, 2 or M, where M means "3 or more". This time it is Recreativo de Huelva - Rayo Vallecano, on Tuesday at 21:00. For the market, the likeliest outcome is that Recreativo fail to score (41.34%), and for Rayo's goals the heaviest option is M (31.79%). The public, by contrast, leans towards one goal for Recreativo: 52% against the market's 36.52%.

What the history says

The quiniela archive records how often each fixture has ended 1, X or 2 when it appeared on the slip. It is not a probability, since it mixes eras, squads and divisions. And in a cup round like this one, it is almost always empty.

The sharpest clash is Alcoyano - Mallorca, on Wednesday at 20:00. On the slip, this fixture stands at 6 / 2 / 0: six home wins, two draws and no away wins. The market, however, has it at 12.3% / 17.89% / 69.81%. That is a past of shared leagues against a present in which Alcoyano are at home precisely because they are the lower-ranked club.

For Badajoz - Tenerife the record reads 6 / 0 / 5: eleven meetings and not a single draw. The market still gives the X 27.83%, and there is no contradiction there; eleven matches are far too few to rule an outcome out.

In Numancia - Real Oviedo (5 / 2 / 3; 2 / 1 / 1 over the last ten), the history leans further towards the hosts than the market does, with the 1 at 18.22%. That is the same direction the public has moved, with its +10.78 on the 1. And Xerez - Cádiz stands at 7 / 5 / 4 in the hosts' favour on the slip, against a market that makes Cádiz favourites at 49.62%.

The other ten matches have no history on the quiniela: 0/0/0. That does not mean the hosts have never won; it means these fixtures have never shared a slip before, which is natural when a small club hosts a professional one in the cup. For those ten, the market is the only numerical reference.

If you fancy following the cup and the coming rounds with friends, you can set up a private league on quiniPrats and compare your calls match by match. No pressure, just a bit of fun.