Quiniela matchday 14 preview: 15 matches and times

All 15 matches of quiniela matchday 14 with kickoff times and market probabilities, and where the crowd and the market disagree.

This is the preview for matchday 14 of la quiniela, Spain's classic football pools game: all 15 fixtures on a ticket carrying a jackpot of 2,000,000 euros, with kickoff times, probabilities and a look at what the numbers say. Matchday 14 starts on Saturday at 14:00 with Espanyol v Atlético de Madrid and closes on Monday at 21:00 with Getafe v Rayo Vallecano. All times are Spanish mainland time (CEST).

In la quiniela you predict the result of 15 matches with a 1 (home win), X (draw) or 2 (away win), and the last one, the Pleno al 15, asks for an exact goal count. On quiniPrats you can play it in private leagues, or porras, with friends. To be clear about the method: this is analysis, not a tip sheet or a ticket. The figures come from three separate series. The market is the Betfair-implied probability, money at risk. The public is how people who bet on the national lottery actually filled in their tickets. The third is what eduardolosilla.es users predicted. The market is the closest thing to a real probability; the public is a crowd, not a forecast.

The matches that shape the weekend

Burgos v Sabadell: the most open match on the ticket

This is the flattest fixture of the round. The market splits it 34.63% / 31.13% / 34.24% (home/draw/away), only 3.5 points between the likeliest and the least likely outcome: a three-sided coin flip. The two clubs have no shared history on the quiniela (0/0/0), so the head-to-head offers nothing. Fans will each see their favourite, but the money does not.

Valencia v Athletic Club: the market and the history look in different directions

The market has it at 28.34% / 28.25% / 43.41%, a slight edge for the visitors, with a spread of 15.16 points: far from a pure toss-up but just as far from a clear favourite. The history belongs to the hosts, though: 52 Valencia wins, 24 draws and 15 Athletic wins on the quiniela, the latest a 2-0 in 2025/2026. Two reasonable readings that disagree, which is what makes it worth arguing about.

Athletic Club Women v Valencia Women: the widest gap between crowd and market

The market has this one at 44.07% / 29.67% / 26.26%: a moderate favourite (spread of 17.81 points) but nowhere near settled. The public has leaned hard on the home win: 79% / 12% / 9%. It is the biggest gap of the whole round, covered below. In the quiniela record the home side has 9 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats.

Real Madrid v Sevilla: the closest thing to a settled match

At 75.78% / 15.21% / 9.01%, this is the biggest edge among the top-flight fixtures: a spread of 66.77 points and 75.78% for the hosts. The history agrees, with 62 home wins, 12 draws and 8 Sevilla wins, and Real Madrid winning 9 of the last ten meetings. Even so, a 75.78% favourite fails to win roughly one time in four. A probability is not a prophecy.

Where the public and the market disagree

For each outcome we compared the public's share with the market's. A positive number means the public backs that outcome more heavily than the market prices it; a negative one means the opposite. It is an observation about a crowd, not advice.

Athletic Club Women v Valencia Women tops the list: the public puts 34.93 points more on the home win than the market does, and -17.67 and -17.26 points on the draw and the away win. Next is Eibar Women v Deportivo Women: a market almost split three ways (33.71% / 30.28% / 36.01%, spread of 5.73) against a public piling onto the home win, 25.29 points above the market, and -21.01 on the away win.

In the second tier, Burgos v Sabadell repeats the pattern: the home win gets 16.37 more points from the public than from the market, and the away win sits -17.24 below. With no shared history between the clubs, it is harder to say where the local enthusiasm comes from. A milder example is Villarreal v Elche, with a 15.8 point gap on the home win.

All 15 matches: kickoff times and probabilities

Each line gives the Spanish kickoff time and the market probability for the home win (1), draw (X) and away win (2). Each row sums to 100.

• 1. Espanyol - Atlético de Madrid · Saturday 14:00 CEST — 1: 20.46% · X: 24.98% · 2: 54.56%
• 2. Villarreal - Elche · Saturday 16:15 CEST — 1: 65.2% · X: 19.57% · 2: 15.23%
• 3. Betis - Barcelona · Saturday 18:30 CEST — 1: 16.03% · X: 17.46% · 2: 66.51%
• 4. Valencia - Athletic Club · Saturday 21:00 CEST — 1: 28.34% · X: 28.25% · 2: 43.41%
• 5. Celta - Alavés · Sunday 16:15 CEST — 1: 44.86% · X: 28.46% · 2: 26.68%
• 6. Málaga - Real Sociedad · Sunday 18:30 CEST — 1: 29.7% · X: 27.05% · 2: 43.25%
• 7. Real Madrid - Sevilla · Sunday 21:00 CEST — 1: 75.78% · X: 15.21% · 2: 9.01%
• 8. Eibar - Mallorca · Saturday 16:15 CEST — 1: 36.86% · X: 29.12% · 2: 34.02%
• 9. Las Palmas - Castellón · Saturday 21:00 CEST — 1: 27.88% · X: 26.01% · 2: 46.11%
• 10. Burgos - Sabadell · Sunday 21:00 CEST — 1: 34.63% · X: 31.13% · 2: 34.24%
• 11. Athletic Club Women - Valencia Women · Saturday 16:30 CEST — 1: 44.07% · X: 29.67% · 2: 26.26%
• 12. Real Madrid Women - Espanyol Women · Saturday 20:30 CEST — 1: 76.03% · X: 15.88% · 2: 8.09%
• 13. Eibar Women - Deportivo Women · Sunday 16:00 CEST — 1: 33.71% · X: 30.28% · 2: 36.01%
• 14. Atlético de Madrid Women - Madrid CFF · Sunday 18:00 CEST — 1: 62.41% · X: 20.75% · 2: 16.84%
• 15. Pleno al 15 · Getafe - Rayo Vallecano · Monday 21:00 CEST — Getafe 0: 28.44% / 1: 35.76% / 2: 22.48% / M: 13.32% — Rayo Vallecano 0: 27.17% / 1: 35.41% / 2: 23.07% / M: 14.35%

The Pleno al 15 works differently from the other fourteen: instead of a 1, X or 2, you pick a goal count for each team: 0, 1, 2 or M, where M means 2 or more.

What the history says

The quiniela's head-to-head record is the section no competitor crosses with the market. In Betis v Barcelona the two agree: Barça has taken 8 of the last ten results (no Betis wins, 2 draws) and the market gives the visitors 66.51%. Together with Real Madrid v Sevilla, it is the fixture where data and probability line up most closely in the top flight.

In Espanyol v Atlético de Madrid, the market gives the visitors 54.56%, but the all-time record favours the hosts: 40 wins, 15 draws and 28 for Atlético. Málaga v Real Sociedad is similar: 18 home wins, 7 draws and 11 away wins in the record, while the market points to the visitors (29.7% / 27.05% / 43.25%).

In Celta v Alavés, the record (20/6/5) and the market (44.86% / 28.46% / 26.68%) both lean home, although the latest meeting was a 3-4 Alavés win in 2025/2026. Eibar v Mallorca has only 8 precedents (2/0/6), including 6 away wins, with the market at 36.86% / 29.12% / 34.02%. Burgos v Sabadell has no history on the quiniela, while Real Madrid Women have won all 4 of their meetings with Espanyol Women.

If you fancy playing matchday 14 with friends, you can set up a porra on quiniPrats and compare your thinking match by match, with no ambition beyond having fun.