Quiniela matchday 21 preview: fixtures and kick-offs

Quiniela matchday 21 preview for 2026-27: all 15 fixtures with kick-off times and probabilities, from the Segunda, Liga F and the Nations League to Spain v England.

This is our preview of matchday 21 of the 2026-27 quiniela, the Spanish state football pools in which players call 1 (home win), X (draw) or 2 (away win) on 14 matches, plus a goals forecast on a 15th known as the Pleno al 15. Below are all 15 quiniela matchday 21 fixtures, their kick-off times and what the probabilities say about each one. With La Liga paused for the international window, the coupon is filled with Segunda División, Liga F and Nations League games. The round starts on Saturday at 14:00 (14 November) with Valladolid v Castellón and ends on Sunday at 20:45 (15 November) with two simultaneous games: Belgium v Italy and the Pleno al 15, Spain v England. All times in this article are Spanish peninsular time (CET). The 14 matches on the coupon break down into nine from the Segunda, one from the Nations League and four from Liga F.

The probabilities we quote come from the betting market, and we set them against the public split, meaning how quiniela players are actually filling in their coupons. This is not a tip sheet: it is a snapshot of what is expected from each match before a ball is kicked.

The matches that will shape the round

Real Sociedad B v Sporting Gijón: the flattest split on the coupon

No match this round is as open: the market gives 38.0% to the 1, 29.1% to the X and 32.9% to the 2, less than nine points between the most and least likely outcomes. The table points the other way. Real Sociedad’s reserve side sit 17th on 12 points (three wins, three draws and seven defeats, with 15 goals scored and 22 conceded), while Sporting are 7th on 22. But Sporting have just lost 1-2 to Valladolid, and Real Sociedad B have stopped the bleeding: a 1-0 win over Girona followed by a goalless draw in Sabadell. The public sees a much clearer 2 here than the market does: 44% have marked it, 11.1 points above the market probability.

Eldense v Sabadell: the likeliest draw of the round

At the Nuevo Pepico Amat the market reads 39.5% for the 1, 30.0% for the X and 30.5% for the 2. That 30.0% is the highest draw probability of the 14 matches, and the public pushes it higher still, to 34%. The context helps explain why. Eldense are 15th on 14 points and arrive after three straight 0-2 defeats, against Albacete, against Granada and away at Las Palmas, without scoring a single goal. Sabadell, 13th on 18 points, are draw specialists: six draws in 13 rounds and an almost neutral goal record of 12 scored and 11 conceded. It is also a fixture with no previous meeting on the quiniela coupon.

Real Sociedad v Athletic Club (W): a Basque derby in Liga F

The market leans towards the home side, with 47.5% for the 1 and a dead heat between the X (26.3%) and the 2 (26.3%). The public sees it as far more even: 38% have marked the 1, 9.5 points below the market, and 33% the X. Real Sociedad are 8th on 13 points but have shown they can beat anyone: on 18 October they beat Barcelona 2-1, one of the shocks of the season, and last time out they won 2-1 at Eibar. Athletic, 5th on 16 points, drew 1-1 with Real Madrid. On the quiniela this derby has 15 previous meetings, with four home wins, four draws and seven away wins; the last five finished 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 1-0.

Belgium v Italy: the Nations League sneaks onto the coupon

The tenth match on the coupon is a Nations League A fixture at the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels. The market gives 43.8% to Belgium, 27.2% to the draw and 29.1% to Italy, and the public split is almost identical (42%, 27% and 31%). After four matchdays France lead the group on 10 points, ahead of Italy (7), Belgium (6) and Türkiye (0), and the standings will shift again on Thursday with Türkiye v Belgium and Italy v France. In the reverse fixture Belgium won 2-0 at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. The fixture has never appeared on the quiniela before.

Where the public and the market disagree

Comparing the public split with the market probabilities throws up three big gaps, and all three point the same way: the public piles onto the 1 in games where the home side is already the favourite, well beyond what the market implies.

The biggest is Tenerife v Ceuta. 70% of the public have marked the 1, against a market probability of 49.5%: a 20.5-point gap. Ceuta are bottom on 5 points (one win, two draws and ten defeats, 10 goals scored and 30 conceded), which explains the public’s confidence. The market is more cautious about a Tenerife side that sit 14th on 15 points, whose trip to Granada was postponed, and who have drawn 1-1 with Girona, Celta Fortuna and Sabadell.

Next comes Almería v Andorra: 74% of the public have marked the 1, against 56.1% from the market (17.9 points). Almería top the Segunda on 29 points and Andorra are 19th on 11. And in Mallorca v Córdoba, 67% of the public go with the 1 against the market’s 55.1% (11.9 points); Mallorca, 6th on 22 points, have conceded only seven goals, while Córdoba are 11th on 19.

Going the other way, Real Sociedad B v Sporting is the only match where the public leans hard towards the 2 (11.1 points). These are observations, not advice: the public drifting away from the market says nothing about what will happen on the pitch, only about how the coupon is being split.

All 15 matches: kick-off times and probabilities

• 1. Valladolid - Castellón · Saturday 14:00 — 1: 32.6% · X: 26.9% · 2: 40.4%
• 2. Real Sociedad B - Sporting Gijón · Saturday 16:15 — 1: 38.0% · X: 29.1% · 2: 32.9%
• 3. Almería - Andorra · Saturday 18:30 — 1: 56.1% · X: 23.2% · 2: 20.7%
• 4. Mallorca - Córdoba · Saturday 18:30 — 1: 55.1% · X: 23.7% · 2: 21.3%
• 5. Real Oviedo - Girona · Saturday 21:00 — 1: 39.8% · X: 28.8% · 2: 31.4%
• 6. Tenerife - Ceuta · Sunday 14:00 — 1: 49.5% · X: 27.0% · 2: 23.5%
• 7. Granada - Las Palmas · Sunday 16:15 — 1: 53.5% · X: 25.6% · 2: 20.9%
• 8. Eibar - Cádiz · Sunday 18:30 — 1: 57.2% · X: 23.9% · 2: 18.9%
• 9. Eldense - Sabadell · Sunday 18:30 — 1: 39.5% · X: 30.0% · 2: 30.5%
• 10. Belgium - Italy · Sunday 20:45 — 1: 43.8% · X: 27.2% · 2: 29.1%
• 11. Alavés (W) - Eibar (W) · Saturday 18:00 — 1: 41.0% · X: 29.3% · 2: 29.8%
• 12. Real Sociedad (W) - Athletic Club (W) · Sunday 12:00 — 1: 47.5% · X: 26.3% · 2: 26.2%
• 13. Sevilla (W) - Atlético Madrid (W) · Sunday 16:00 — 1: 18.5% · X: 22.4% · 2: 59.1%
• 14. Valencia (W) - Granada (W) · Sunday 18:15 — 1: 31.2% · X: 28.3% · 2: 40.5%
• 15. Pleno al 15 · Spain - England · Sunday 20:45 — Spain 0: 15.0% / 1: 28.4% / 2: 27.0% / M: 29.6% — England 0: 38.8% / 1: 36.7% / 2: 17.4% / M: 7.1%

The Pleno al 15 works differently from the other fourteen: instead of 1, X or 2, you call how many goals each team scores. For each side you pick 0, 1, 2 or M, where M means “3 or more”. In Spain v England, at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, the market spreads Spain’s goals across 1 (28.4%), 2 (27.0%) and M (29.6%), leaving 0 at 15.0%. For England, 0 leads (38.8%), with 1 close behind (36.7%). The public is more concentrated: 49% have marked 2 for Spain and 51% have marked 1 for England. It is the rematch of the first leg, which Spain won 3-2 at Wembley after coming from behind twice; Spain lead their group with 12 points out of 12 and England have 9, with Thursday’s matchday still to play.

What the history says

The history counts how many times each fixture has appeared on the quiniela before and how it ended: home wins, draws and away wins. The fixture with the most past is Granada v Las Palmas, with 27 previous meetings: 16 home wins, 9 draws and only 2 away wins, and some very tight recent results (0-0, 1-1 and 2-1). Next come Mallorca v Córdoba (14, 3 and 3) and Valladolid v Castellón (11, 5 and 1), although the most recent of those, in 2025-26, ended 0-4. This season Castellón are 2nd on 27 points with only five goals conceded in 12 games, and the market has them as away favourites (40.4%).

Tenerife v Ceuta has nine previous meetings, all nine home wins. Eibar v Cádiz has five home wins and two away wins, with 3-1 and 1-0 as the latest results; Eibar are 4th on 23 points and Cádiz 20th on 10. Real Oviedo v Girona splits 6, 1 and 2, with a 1-0 last time. Real Sociedad B v Sporting has four previous meetings (2, 1 and 1), the last two 0-1 in 2025-26 and 2-1 in 2021-22, and Almería v Andorra just one, a 3-2.

In Liga F, Sevilla v Atlético Madrid has 12 previous meetings with two home wins, four draws and six away wins (the latest: 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 1-3 and 0-0). It is also the clearest 2 of the round for the market (59.1%), with Atlético 3rd on 19 points and Sevilla 13th on 10. Valencia v Granada (W) splits 2, 0 and 1, with 0-2 in 2024-25 and 4-1 in 2023-24, and Alavés v Eibar (W) has just one previous meeting, a 1-0 in 2021-22. Eldense v Sabadell and Belgium v Italy have no previous meetings on the quiniela.

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