Matchday 61 of the Quiniela: analysis, predictions and the decisive Clásico

We analyse all 15 matches of matchday 61: the Barça–Madrid that could clinch the title, the relegation battles, and the promotion fight in Segunda.

Matchday 61 of the Quiniela in the 2025-26 season arrives with an extra weight of significance: Sunday 10 May's Barça–Real Madrid could crown the blaugrana champions at home. With an 11-point lead over Madrid with four matchdays to go, a win or draw at the Spotify Camp Nou would be enough to lift the title. But it's not all about El Clásico: 14 ties from Primera and Segunda División concentrate battles for Europe, relegation and promotion that make this one of the most complex matchdays of the season. The accumulated jackpot exceeds one and a half million euros.

The Clásico that could hand Barça the title (Full House)

FC Barcelona arrive as the overwhelming favourites this season and on the verge of being crowned champions. Eleven points separate the blaugrana from Real Madrid with four matchdays remaining. A positive result at the Spotify Camp Nou — a win or draw — would be enough to lift the title in front of their own fans, with their greatest rivals as witnesses.

Real Madrid arrive without the pressure of the Champions League (both sides have been knocked out of Europe) but with the pride of not wanting to hand their rivals the title. In recent Clásicos at the Camp Nou the results have been tight, and the tension of the occasion can produce surprises. The quiniela community is very split: the voting percentages point to a draw (X) as a very likely option, followed by a home win (1). The double 1X is the most recommended strategic pick to cover El Clásico with confidence.

Primera División (Matchday 35): Europe and relegation, on the edge

Survival battles: everything at stake

• Elche vs Alavés (1): Two teams in the danger zone. Elche's winning run has stalled; Alavés are coming off a heavy defeat. 52% of the community back the home win, but this is one of the most unpredictable ties of the matchday.
• Real Oviedo vs Getafe (7): Oviedo's survival is mathematically 'near impossible'. Getafe, in seventh, are losing form. 46% vote for the away win (2), though a draw is very possible given the uncertainty.
• Rayo Vallecano vs Girona (8): Girona are not yet safe and have lost three in a row. Rayo's position is already secure. 53% back a Rayo win (1), but Girona's desperation could produce a surprise.

The European race: Atlético, Betis and Athletic

• Atlético de Madrid vs Celta (3): Atlético, in fourth, are chasing third place. Celta arrive in good form, fresh from a win over Elche, and are defending their European spot. 64% of the community expect an Atlético win (1), but Celta are a tricky side to face away from home. A good candidate for the double 1X.
• Real Sociedad vs Betis (4): Real Sociedad have lost focus since winning the Copa. Betis, fifth, have a six-point cushion over sixth place and can afford to take their foot off the gas. 38% vote for a draw (X), making this the least clear prediction in Primera.
• Athletic Club vs Valencia (6): Athletic, eighth, are chasing a European place and are three points from their target. Valencia, twelfth, are not fully safe from relegation. 66% back Athletic (1), the second highest percentage in Primera.
• Mallorca vs Villarreal (5): Villarreal are already mathematically confirmed in the Champions League. Mallorca are improving under the new manager. Surprisingly, 54% vote for Villarreal away (2), despite having nothing to play for.

Segunda División (Matchday 39): direct promotion, three matchdays to go

Matchday 39 in Segunda División features a very compact table at the top. Racing de Santander lead comfortably and are chasing direct promotion. Almería, second, are close behind. Burgos, seventh, are just one point off the playoff places. The pressure is at its maximum on all fronts.

• Leganés vs Racing de Santander (13): Racing, the leaders, face a Leganés side fighting for survival. 64% vote away (2), the highest consensus percentage in Segunda. But a team battling relegation can be unpredictable. The double X2 would be the cautious choice.
• Burgos vs Almería (10): Two in-form teams with a great deal at stake. Burgos, one point off the playoff; Almería, second, chasing direct promotion. 44% vote away (2), but Burgos have home advantage and maximum motivation.
• Málaga vs Sporting Gijón (11): The clearest prediction of the entire matchday: 71% back Málaga (1). A strong recent win for the Malagans and Sporting with nothing to play for. A confident pick.
• Córdoba vs Granada (14): Córdoba have won five in a row, the best run in the division. 60% vote home (1). Granada, despite beating Zaragoza recently, are less consistent.
• Ceuta vs Castellón (9): Castellón, fourth, need the points for the playoff. 48% vote away (2).

The jackpot and the difficulty of matchday 61

With a jackpot of €1.4 million and an estimated pool of €3.5 million, matchday 61 is one of the most heavily played of the season. The difficulty is high: few results look 'certain', and El Clásico's place in the full house adds further uncertainty. End-of-season matchdays tend to produce more draws than expected, especially in matches where one team has nothing left to play for.

Our view: the most reliable picks of matchday 61

• Málaga vs Sporting (clear 1): 71% consensus, one of the highest percentages of the entire season. Simple, confident pick.
• Athletic Club vs Valencia (solid 1): 66% consensus. Athletic in form with European motivation against a Valencia with nothing clear to play for.
• Atlético de Madrid vs Celta (double 1X recommended): Celta are strong and 64% may be optimistic. Covering with 1X is the rational decision.
• Leganés vs Racing (probable 2): Racing need the win as leaders, but watch out for Leganés's home pressure. X2 if you want cover.
• Barça vs Madrid (double 1X or treble 1X2): The hardest match to call. If your budget allows, the treble gives full coverage of El Clásico.

Whatever your pick, this matchday is perfect for experiencing with a group. Head to QuiniPrats, submit your predictions before 14:00 on Saturday 9 May, and compare yourself against the rest of your private league. Matchday 61 will be remembered: either as the day Barça were crowned Liga champions at home against Madrid, or as the day everything got complicated all over again.