World Cup 2026: The Surprises That Have Already Blown Every Prediction

Cape Verde hold Spain, Australia topple Turkey, and the favourites stumble. The opening days of the 2026 World Cup have left predictions in tatters.

The 2026 World Cup has barely been underway a few days and it has already served up its first round of major surprises. If you filled in your quiniela or your sweepstake trusting blindly in the favourites, you've probably already seen some results hurt you. That's the beauty — and the nightmare — of the World Cup: here, no game is won before it's played.

Cape Verde, the debutants who held Spain

The most talked-about surprise has a name: Cape Verde. The African side, playing the first World Cup match in their history, stood firm against a star-studded Spain and earned a 0-0 draw at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Luis de la Fuente's side had the ball — around 74% possession — but never found the clarity they needed in the final third.

Australia topple Turkey and open the box of surprises

The other major upset was delivered by the Socceroos: Australia beat Turkey 2-0, a side many had pegged as clear favourites in their group. A result that serves as a reminder that teams from the Asian and Oceanian zones have closed the gap on the traditional powerhouses.

The favourites who stumbled on matchday one

Spain and Australia weren't the only headlines. Several heavyweights dropped points on their opening day:

• Brazil drew 1-1 with Morocco, one of the revelations of Qatar 2022.
• Canada, the hosts, drew 1-1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina despite dominating large spells of the game.
• Switzerland were held to a 1-1 draw by Qatar.
• The Netherlands let victory slip with a 2-2 draw against Japan in Group F.

Comebacks and heart-stopping matches

The opening days also produced strong emotions beyond the upsets. South Korea came from behind to beat Czechia (2-1): the Czechs took the lead from a set piece, but the Asian response was immediate, with an equaliser from In-beom and his subsequent assist for the winning goal. Scotland, meanwhile, beat Haiti 1-0 — Haiti returning to a World Cup 52 years on — thanks to a John McGinn strike in the 28th minute.

This kind of match, settled by fine margins and featuring comebacks, is exactly what separates good predictors from the rest: anyone who can read that a favourite might struggle more than expected gains a huge advantage in the sweepstake.

What do these surprises teach us for the sweepstake?

The lesson is clear and repeats itself World Cup after World Cup: on matchday one, with sides still finding their feet and feeling the pressure of their debut, draws and shocks are far more common than the bookmakers' odds suggest. Backing all the favourites to win is the most dangerous temptation.

The one result that went to script

It wasn't all surprises. Mexico opened the tournament with a 2-0 win over South Africa at the Estadio Azteca, also ending a long run without victories in opening matches. And the United States thrashed Paraguay 4-1. The hosts, spurred on by their fans, delivered when it mattered most.

The World Cup has only just begun and there are still dozens of matches to come. If you want to put your eye for surprises to the test, create your 2026 World Cup sweepstake with your friends on QuiniPrats and find out who reads the tournament best.