Quiniela matchday 12 preview: all 15 fixtures and times

Every fixture on Spain's quiniela coupon for matchday 12 of 2026-27, with kickoff times and what the betting market, the public and history say. Levante v Sevilla is the most open.

This is the matchday 12 preview for the 2026-27 quiniela: all 15 fixtures on the coupon, their kickoff times and what the numbers say about each one. La quiniela is Spain's state-run football pools game. You pick 1 (home win), X (draw) or 2 (away win) for 14 matches, then predict the exact score of a fifteenth, the Pleno al 15. This week's coupon has eight LaLiga games, six from the second tier and a Pleno al 15 between Real Madrid and Villarreal. The action starts on Saturday 10 October at 14:00 in Vallecas and finishes on Monday 12 October at 21:00 with Levante v Sevilla. All times in this article are Spanish peninsular time (CEST), and the jackpot stands at €1.5 million.

You won't find a recommended coupon here. Instead there are three sets of percentages, and they measure different things. The market is the probability implied by Betfair prices, so it's backed by real money. The public is how punters are actually filling in their coupons, using LAE's own figures. The third set comes from users of eduardolosilla.es. When all three agree, there isn't much to talk about. The interesting part is where they don't.

The matches that will decide the round

Levante v Sevilla (Monday 21:00)

This is the most open game on the coupon. The market splits it 36% / 28.82% / 35.18%, a gap of just 7.18 points between the likeliest and least likely outcome, so it's close to a three-way coin toss. The table points the other way. Sevilla are fifth with 13 points from seven games, while Levante sit 17th on 5 points with a game in hand. The market seems to remember last season, though: Levante won both meetings, 3-0 at the Sánchez-Pizjuán in January and 2-0 at home in April. The public sees less of a contest and has put 48% on the away win.

Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club (Saturday 14:00)

The opening game of the round is almost as tight: 34.96% / 28.45% / 36.59%, a spread of 8.14 points. The sides are level on 8 points. Rayo are 12th after seven games and Athletic tenth with a game in hand. Here the public and the market mostly agree. The biggest gap is on the draw, which punters back at 33% against the market's 28.45%.

Burgos v Granada (Monday 16:15)

In the second tier, Burgos are sixth on 14 points and Granada ninth on 11. The market gives the home side an edge, but only a small one: 38.95% / 29.21% / 31.84%, a spread of 9.74 points. The public has gone much harder on the home win, putting 54% on it, fifteen points above the market (+15.05). Few games on the coupon show a bigger split between the crowd and the money, and the market rates the draw here higher than in most fixtures.

Barcelona v Getafe (Saturday 18:30)

The other end of the scale. Barcelona top the table with seven wins from seven, and the market gives them an 88.61% chance of winning, a spread of 84.91 points. That's the closest thing to a banker this week. Even so, 88.61% means the favourite fails to win roughly once in every nine games like this. The draw is priced at 7.69% and the away win at 3.7%.

Where the public and the market disagree

The gap between the public's percentage and the market's shows where punters are putting more weight than the money thinks is justified. It doesn't tell you who's right. It tells you where opinion is most lopsided. These are the three biggest gaps on the matchday 12 coupon.

• FC Andorra v Castellón: 62% of the public is on the away win against a market price of 42.74% (+19.26). Castellón are second and unbeaten, with six wins and two draws, while Andorra are 20th, so the public is following the table. The market still gives Andorra a 30.34% chance.
• Real Betis v Osasuna: 80% of the public backs the home win, which the market puts at 60.96% (+19.04). Betis are third on 16 points and Osasuna 13th.
• Almería v Leganés: the home win gets 74% of the public against 57.14% in the market (+16.86). Almería are third in the second tier, and Leganés 13th.

All three have the same pattern: the public piles onto the higher-placed side more heavily than the market does. The same thing shows up in Alavés v Atlético Madrid, where 69% of the public is on the away win against the market's 52.67% (+16.33). It's there too in Real Oviedo v Eibar, where the second-tier leaders play away and the public gives them 42% against the market's 27.57% (+14.43).

All 15 fixtures: kickoff times and probabilities

Market (Betfair) probabilities for each outcome, with kickoff times in Spanish peninsular time. The order follows the coupon.

• 1. Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Club · Saturday 14:00 — 1: 34.96% · X: 28.45% · 2: 36.59%
• 2. Alavés - Atlético Madrid · Saturday 16:15 — 1: 22.05% · X: 25.28% · 2: 52.67%
• 3. Barcelona - Getafe · Saturday 18:30 — 1: 88.61% · X: 7.69% · 2: 3.7%
• 4. Elche - Celta · Sunday 14:00 — 1: 33.89% · X: 29.17% · 2: 36.94%
• 5. Real Sociedad - Deportivo · Sunday 16:15 — 1: 57.9% · X: 23.77% · 2: 18.33%
• 6. Real Betis - Osasuna · Sunday 18:30 — 1: 60.96% · X: 22.61% · 2: 16.43%
• 7. Racing Santander - Valencia · Sunday 21:00 — 1: 41.61% · X: 26.41% · 2: 31.98%
• 8. Levante - Sevilla · Monday 21:00 — 1: 36% · X: 28.82% · 2: 35.18%
• 9. Eldense - Córdoba · Saturday 18:30 — 1: 39.22% · X: 26.08% · 2: 34.7%
• 10. FC Andorra - Castellón · Sunday 14:00 — 1: 30.34% · X: 26.92% · 2: 42.74%
• 11. Almería - Leganés · Sunday 16:15 — 1: 57.14% · X: 23.61% · 2: 19.25%
• 12. Mallorca - Las Palmas · Sunday 18:30 — 1: 59.39% · X: 23.39% · 2: 17.22%
• 13. Burgos - Granada · Monday 16:15 — 1: 38.95% · X: 29.21% · 2: 31.84%
• 14. Real Oviedo - Eibar · Monday 18:30 — 1: 42.94% · X: 29.49% · 2: 27.57%
• 15. Pleno al 15 · Real Madrid - Villarreal · Saturday 21:00 — Real Madrid 0: 9.18% / 1: 21.92% / 2: 26.18% / M: 42.72% — Villarreal 0: 43.88% / 1: 36.14% / 2: 14.89% / M: 5.09%

The Pleno al 15 isn't played as 1, X or 2. You predict how many goals each team scores, with four options per side: 0, 1, 2 or M, which means three or more. It only counts if you get both teams right. The market thinks Real Madrid are likelier to score three or more (42.72%) than any other single number, and that Villarreal's most likely tally is zero (43.88%).

What the history says

The quiniela archive records the result every time a fixture has appeared on the coupon. Sometimes it backs the market and sometimes it doesn't.

• Barcelona v Getafe: 17 home wins, 4 draws and no defeats on the quiniela. History and the market agree.
• Real Betis v Osasuna: 27 home wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats, with 7 wins and a draw in the most recent records. History is even more one-sided than the market's 60.96%, and closer to the public's 80%.
• Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club: 6-8-9 overall. In the recent records Rayo have not won once (3 draws, 3 away wins), and the last four seasons finished 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 and 0-0.
• Burgos v Granada: the last two meetings on the coupon were both draws (1-1 and 2-2), and the overall record is 2 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. Even so, the public has only 29% on the draw.
• Levante v Sevilla: 6-6-8 overall, and the last result on the coupon was last season's 2-0.
• FC Andorra v Castellón: only one previous meeting on the quiniela, a 1-3 last season.
• Racing Santander v Valencia and Real Sociedad v Deportivo: plenty of old history (21-9-10 and 21-9-12), but neither has been on the coupon in recent seasons, so the record says little about today.

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