Alavés: the surprise LaLiga leader nobody predicted

Seven points from nine and top of LaLiga 2026-27 while Barcelona and Real Madrid spent over 200 million. What Quique Sánchez Flores's Alavés tells us about predicting football in August.

Nobody had this one on their coupon. Three matchdays into LaLiga 2026-27 and the surprise league leader is not Barcelona, not Real Madrid, not Sevilla. It is Deportivo Alavés, sitting on seven points from a possible nine. While Spain's giants were spending hundreds of millions in the summer transfer window, a modestly funded club from Vitoria quietly climbed to the top of the table. If you play the Spanish quiniela or run a prediction league with friends, this is precisely the kind of story that wins or wrecks your week.

Seven from nine: how Alavés got to the top of LaLiga

Alavés have been close to flawless. They opened the season on 15 August by taking Getafe apart at Mendizorroza, which made them the first leaders of the campaign. A trip to Vallecas brought a draw, and last Friday they finished the job against a Villarreal side still waiting for a first win.

• Matchday 1 (15 August, home): Alavés 3-0 Getafe. Three scored, none conceded, top of the pile.
• Matchday 2 (20 August, away): Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alavés. A useful point at a traditionally awkward ground.
• Matchday 3 (28 August, home): Alavés 1-0 Villarreal. Lucas Boyé with the goal, and six of their seven points now banked at home.

Two wins, one draw, five goals scored and only one conceded. With Barcelona and Real Madrid still short of a third fixture because the post-World Cup calendar pushed games back, Alavés have taken everything on offer.

Boyé's goal and a night of woodwork

The 1-0 over Villarreal was a proper craftsman's win. The goal came from a sweeping counter in which Antonio Blanco switched play out to Ángel Pérez, and Lucas Boyé applied the finish. From there Alavés did what well-drilled sides do: hold their shape and trust the goalkeeper.

Antonio Sivera duly turned up when it mattered, with a crucial stop late in the first half to keep the lead intact. The frame of the goal did its share of the defending too, with Mariano Díaz clattering a shot against the post with twenty minutes left. Íñigo Pérez's Villarreal, meanwhile, have now drawn all three of their opening fixtures.

Meanwhile, the big two were spending a fortune in the transfer market

The contrast with the transfer market could hardly be sharper. This summer, in the afterglow of a World Cup won by Spain, the two Spanish heavyweights completed the two most expensive deals in recent Spanish football, and neither of them is top of the table.

• Real Madrid announced the signing of Yan Diomande on 6 August, a 19-year-old Ivorian winger from RB Leipzig, for an initial 125 million euros rising to as much as 140 million with add-ons, on a deal until 30 June 2033.
• Barcelona confirmed Rodri's arrival from Manchester City on 18 August for 60 million euros plus variables, with a contract running to 30 June 2030.
• Rodri, Spain's captain and the Golden Ball winner at the 2026 World Cup, made his debut on 27 August as a 63rd-minute substitute in Barcelona's 2-0 win over Athletic Club, with Raphinha and Fermín López on the scoresheet.

Put those two deals together and you comfortably clear 200 million euros. Alavés's entire annual budget is not remotely in that conversation, and yet on 30 August the club from Vitoria has more points than either of them. The window shuts on Tuesday 1 September at 23:59 Spanish time, so there is still time for late business, but today's snapshot is telling.

What this teaches you about predicting football

This is where a fun fact turns into something genuinely useful. The opening weeks of a season are when the market is most wrong, which is exactly why they are where the value sits for anyone willing to look past the badge.

• Expensive signings do not pay dividends in September. A 140-million-euro forward needs time to settle; a squad that already knows each other does not.
• Smaller clubs with continuity tend to start well. Alavés changed very little from last season, and it shows in their sharpness.
• Three matchdays is a tiny sample. Seven points guarantee nothing, but habitually dismissing the smaller sides will quietly cost you entire rounds.
• Home and away wins are not the only outcomes. Villarreal have drawn three from three; some teams, by style or by circumstance, produce draws in clusters.

That, in the end, is the appeal of the quiniela. The game is not about identifying the best team in Spain; it is about spotting where the consensus has quietly got it wrong. In August 2026, the consensus said Barcelona and Madrid.

If this is the sort of thing that makes football fun for you, it is even better shared. On quiniPrats you can set up a private prediction league with friends in a couple of minutes and compare your calls round by round: who trusted Alavés, who went all in on the expensive signings, and who simply got lucky. No pressure, no fuss, just something to argue about on Monday morning.